Transaction 1 (idealized case): 1 input (mix 4), 6 outputs (3 significant digits to receiver + change): ~648 Bytes
Transaction 2 (made up average case): 10 inputs (mix 4), 10 outputs: ~4,247 Bytes
Transaction 3 (pool miner): 200 inputs (mix 4), 10 outputs: ~74,637 Bytes
Transaction 4 (well used wallet with small change): 100 inputs (mix 4), 10 outputs: ~37,537 Bytes
In general I'd expect transactions to be slightly to moderately smaller than what I have listed, due to my (IMO generous) choice of varint lengths. I chose mixin 4 because that's what the client software defaults to now (AFAIK), and it should be the typical, supported case. IMO we don't need to support sky high mixins via the minimum median size.
Note that outputs don't have a very large effect on transaction sizes, so changing those from 6-10 to something else will not change much. Pools that cater to a large number of participants shouldn't have any trouble splitting their payout transactions anyway.